The traditional television upfront has always been a fixture of the advertising calendar. Every spring, networks present their fall lineups to advertisers and agencies, and billions of dollars in commitments are made before a single piece of content airs. But in 2026, the upfront is doing something unexpected: it is growing at the expense of the programmatic marketplace for streaming ads.

This week's Future of TV Briefing from Digiday+ examines how the balance between guaranteed upfront deals and real-time programmatic buying has shifted over the past 12 months. The findings run counter to the narrative that programmatic would eventually take over streaming inventory the way it did display and search. Instead, advertisers are committing more of their streaming budgets to upfront contracts and leaving less to the open market.

Why Upfront Deals Are Winning

The upfront model offers something programmatic cannot easily replicate: certainty. When an advertiser commits $10 million to a platform's upfront, they know exactly what inventory they will receive, at what price, and with what audience guarantees. The programmatic market, by contrast, is subject to auction dynamics, where CPMs can spike unexpectedly and premium inventory can disappear mid-campaign if demand surges elsewhere.

For brands running large-scale campaigns where consistent reach matters more than micro-targeting efficiency, the upfront is simply a better fit. The ability to plan months in advance, lock in pricing, and secure specific placement contexts gives brand marketers a level of control that programmatic does not always provide.

Agencies have also become more comfortable with upfront commitments for streaming after years of experimenting with programmatic-only approaches. Early enthusiasm for programmatic CTV was tempered by the reality that the technology was not yet mature enough to deliver the reliability that major advertisers needed. Many buyers have concluded that a hybrid approach, weighted toward upfront, reduces risk on the most critical campaigns.

What Programmatic Still Does Well

None of this means programmatic CTV is going away. The technology has genuine advantages for specific use cases. Direct response advertisers, who care about conversions rather than impressions, still rely heavily on programmatic tools to test creative variants, optimize in real time, and scale campaigns once performance metrics look promising. Programmatic is also the natural home for retargeting and for reaching audiences that fall outside the guarantees offered in upfront deals.

The open market also remains important for agencies managing smaller budgets that do not meet minimum thresholds for upfront commitments. A brand spending $200,000 on CTV for the year is not going to commit $50,000 upfront; they will buy programmatically instead. The programmatic ecosystem serves an essential function in the market, giving smaller advertisers access to CTV inventory that would otherwise be reserved for the biggest spenders.

The measurement ecosystem is evolving to serve both models. OpenAP has been developing outcome measurement tools that work across both upfront and programmatic deals. These tools aim to give advertisers a consistent view of campaign performance regardless of how the inventory was purchased, which addresses one of the persistent pain points in the CTV buying process.

The Implications for Media Planning

For media planners, the shift toward upfront deals has practical consequences. Upfront commitments require more lead time, more coordination with clients on budget allocations, and more precise forecasting than programmatic buying. Planning cycles are extending as a result, and agencies are hiring more media strategists who understand how to construct annual plans that blend upfront and programmatic in a way that serves different campaign objectives.

The upfront model also concentrates power with the platforms. When advertisers commit early and lock in inventory, they are betting that the platform will deliver the audience they promised. If a platform overestimates its viewership or underdelivers on audience guarantees, the advertiser has limited recourse once the money is committed. Programmatic offers more flexibility to pivot, which is why many planners recommend keeping a portion of budget in the open market even when the majority goes to upfront.

The broader trend is toward convergence between linear and streaming upfront processes. Broadcast and cable networks have been running upfronts for decades, and their processes are well-established. Streaming platforms, many of which launched without upfront infrastructure, are now building the sales teams, deal structures, and reporting tools that mirror the linear model. The result is that advertisers are increasingly treating CTV as an extension of traditional TV buying rather than a separate digital channel.

The shift toward upfront does not mean programmatic is shrinking in absolute terms. Programmatic CTV spend is still growing year over year as more inventory becomes available through automated channels and more advertisers test the channel for the first time. What has changed is the rate of growth. Programmatic was expanding at 40 to 50 percent annually two years ago; it is now growing at around 20 percent as the base gets larger and the easy wins from early adoption fade.

Upfront growth, by contrast, has accelerated. Major streaming platforms are reporting that upfront deals represent between 55 and 65 percent of their total CTV ad revenue commitments for 2026, up from roughly 45 percent in 2024. The shift reflects a deliberate strategy by platforms to encourage longer-term commitments by offering better pricing and audience guarantees to advertisers who commit early.

Agency executives say the dynamic varies by client type. Performance-focused brands with agile creative teams tend to prefer programmatic because it gives them more room to iterate. Brand advertisers with longer planning horizons and established creative workflows find more value in upfront deals because the certainty of inventory and pricing lets them build more reliable media plans. The split is roughly 60-40 in favor of upfront for most large agency rosters, with some variation by category and client size.

The practical challenge for agencies is managing the interface between upfront and programmatic teams within the same client account. The skills required are different: upfront buying requires relationship management, negotiation expertise, and a deep understanding of audience planning. Programmatic requires technical proficiency with DSP platforms, data analysis capabilities, and the ability to optimize campaigns in real time. Agencies are finding that they need both capabilities in-house, which means more investment in training and hiring.

Looking ahead, the balance is unlikely to shift dramatically in either direction. Platforms want the certainty of upfront commitments to help with inventory planning. Advertisers want the flexibility of programmatic to respond to market conditions. The resolution is a hybrid model that serves both needs, with the exact ratio determined by campaign objectives, budget size, and the maturity of the advertiser's CTV program. For most brands, the answer in 2026 is an upfront-heavy approach that leaves room to maneuver in the open market when conditions warrant.

Sources: Digiday — Future of TV Briefing: The upfront is overtaking streaming's programmatic marketplace

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